タイバーツのボラティリティリスク(その1)

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thai baht昨日、円資産だけでなく外貨資産も持った方がいいいということを書きましたが、それでは、バンコクのコンドミニアムのようなタイバーツ資産でもいいのか、という疑問があります。

 

15日のタイの英字新聞The Nationsの中で、今年、タイバーツは米ドルに対して下落するだろうという記事が出ていました。

 

この記事によれば、米ドルインデックスは今年の第一四半期に対バーツ相場においても、10年ぶりに高値を更新してくる可能性があると予測しています。

 

昨年1216日にドルバーツレートは32.98をつけましたが、香港ベースの投資会社、リオリエントグループによれば、米ドルは今年更に高くなるそうです。

 

また、サイアムコマーシャルバンクのリサーチセンターは、今年後半のアメリカ政府の利上げにより、新興国から米国への資本回帰が起こるというマーケットコンセンサスから、今年第2四半期頃からバーツが売られ始め、最終的には1ドル33.5バーツまでいくと予測しています。


一方、ティスコフィナンシャルグループとグルンタイアセットマネジメントは、タイ中央銀行が今年前半は政策金利を2%で維持するだろうと予測していますが、その後については異なる予測をしています。


前者は、中央銀行が今年一杯政策金利を2%で維持できると予測しているものの、後者は資本回帰を食い止めるために中央銀行は今年後半0.25%から0.50%の利上げをすると予測しています。

 

いずれにせよ、大方のコンセンサスとしては、今年は世界の通貨の中で米ドル高が続き、タイバーツも対ドルで下落する、ということのようです。

ถ้าคุณรู้สึกสนุก ช่วยกดนะครับ 

にほんブログ村 住まいブログ 海外不動産・海外住宅へ

にほんブログ村 

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) has the potential
to break its 2005 high in the current quarter, which means that the baht could
be even weaker when compared to the greenback after its recent depreciation
amid falling global oil prices.

Reorient Group, an investment firm based in
Hong Kong, said late last month that the US dollar would be even stronger in
the new year, since the dollar and Japanese currency pair had bounced up due to
stronger
US jobs numbers.
The company believed there was a possibility that the DXY could go above the
2005 high of 92.63 in the current quarter.
US payroll employment rose much faster than expected in November to
314,000, versus a market consensus of 230,000, but its year-on-year growth
remained flat at 2 per cent while the ADP payroll data for private employment
showed 2.1-per-cent year on year growth, the company said.
The DXY goes up when the US dollar gains value when compared to other
currencies. It hit 89.59 on December 19 – the highest level since March 2006 –
due to gains against the euro and the yen, while the baht had reached 32.98 per
dollar on December 16, the day after the Stock Exchange of Thailand index fell
by more than 30 points, before appreciating to 32.86 per dollar on December 19.
Supavud Saicheua, director of Phatra Capital, said on December 12 that the baht
could reach 34 per dollar by 2015 due to the strengthening of the
greenback. 

Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul said
on December 16 that the depreciation of the baht from December 10-16 had been
due to the falling price of oil, as the slowdown of market activities at the
end of the year meant that any rapid movement from important commodities could have
more effect on prices in the stock and money markets.
Meanwhile, the Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre forecast
that the baht would weaken to 33.5 per dollar this year, and that the
depreciation was likely to start in the second quarter due to capital outflows
from emerging markets in anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve
in the second half of the year and an accommodative monetary policy by the Bank of Thailand to support growth.
The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said after its last meeting
on December 17 that “going forward, members agreed that monetary policy
should remain accommodative in order to reinforce the momentum of economic
recovery”.
Tisco Financial Group economist Apichat Wisitkitchakarn and Somchai Amornthum,
executive vice president for research at Krung Thai Asset Management, agreed
that the committee would probably maintain the policy rate at 2 per cent in the
first half of 2015, but disagreed on the timing of a rate hike during the year.
Apichat believed that the MPC would hold the benchmark interest rate at 2 per
cent for the whole of 2015, but Somchai and Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at
Maybank Kim Eng Securities, said the committee would hike the rate by 0.25-0.50
basis points in the latter half.

 

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